The Marcus Pettersson Trade Is Exactly What The Pens Should Be Doing

The Pens turned their most obvious trade chip into a surprisingly big return.

The Penguins continued their “we’re doing ANYTHING BUT A REBUILD” rebuild this week by trading pending free agents Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to old pal Jim Rutherford and the Canucks for the Rangers’ 2025 1st round pick, forward prospect Melvin Fernstrom (the Canucks’ 3rd round pick this past draft), winger Danton Heinen, and defenseman Vincent Desharnais.

I absolutely love this deal for the Pens, for a couple reasons:

The Pros:

Getting a 1st rounder for Marcus Pettersson was always the ideal goal. Looking back at past deadlines, rental defensemen don’t always yield 1sts. Calgary traded Noah Hanifin to Vegas for a 1st last deadline, but he’s a higher-caliber defenseman than Pettersson. Chris Tanev, who’s a more comparable “defensive defenseman” type, fetched Calgary a 2nd and a 3rd from Dallas.

This deal reminded me more of Philly trading Sean Walker to Colorado last deadline. The Flyers traded Walker to the Avalanche for a 1st and took back the tail end of Ryan Johansen’s contract along with the pick. In that one, Philly took back some extra salary to make Colorado feel comfortable about giving up a 1st for a good but not elite defenseman on an expiring contract, just like Pettersson.

The Penguins took a similar approach to the Walker deal, essentially saying “what other minor perks can we throw in to push Pettersson’s value up to a 1st?” In this case, it was including Drew O’Connor and taking back two players with one year and a combined $4.25 mil in salary next year who Vancouver didn’t want to keep.

But the Pens’ return was even better than the trades above, because the pick from the Rangers they now own will very likely be much higher in the first round than the 2025 picks Vegas and Colorado traded in those deals for Hanifin and Walker. The pick is top-13 protected, so if the Rangers end up drafting in the top 13 (right now they’re 11th from last in the league), they could defer the pick until next year. But if the Rangers go on a mini-run and end up getting one of the East playoff wildcard spots or falling just short, it’s very likely their pick would fall somewhere in that #13-#20 range. That would be a fair amount higher than the picks any other contenders who might’ve traded for Pettersson (Edmonton, Toronto, etc.) could have offered.

Ultimately, the Pens not only got a 1st for Pettersson and O’Connor, they got a 1st that should be at least 10 spots higher than most of the other 1sts that will get dealt this deadline. That’s a big deal! They also got a 3rd-round-caliber prospect back for good measure. That’s a better return than the Flames got for Noah Hanifin. You really can’t ask for much more than that.

The Cons:

The only two drawbacks to this trade, and they’re both very minor, are: 1) Drew O’Connor was having a really bad year, and 2) The Pens took back a little over $4 mil in unwanted salary.

If O’Connor had built off his 16-goal, 33-point performance from a season ago, with his miniscule cap hit, I think he could’ve inflated his value back up to a 2nd on his own. But there’s no guarantee his value would’ve gotten that high — rental wingers are a dime a dozen at the deadline — and getting Fernstrom back is basically the equivalent of getting a 3rd for O’Connor, which is pretty fair either way.

As for Pittsburgh getting Heinen and Desharnais, taking back their salaries allowed the Pens to keep their last salary retention spot in case they want to use it to retain money on another deal at the deadline. Neither player will factor into the Pens’ long-term plans, but they’re both playable, and both contracts expire after next year.

I imagine Heinen will be the Pens’ Beauvillier next year: fine veteran forward who can bounce up & down the lineup without the Pens having to force younger players into roles before they’re ready, but he also won’t “block” anyone, and might be worth a minor pick next deadline. Desharnais can slot in as the Pens’ #3 right D without blocking anyone. If more trades are coming, the Pens will have plenty of spots for functional veterans next year, even if they start calling up the kids.

What Should The Pens Do With The Pick?

If the pick ends up in the 15-18 range or so this year, I generally think the Pens should just keep it and draft someone. It’s supposedly not a super-deep draft, and whomever they take likely won’t help the team for years (if at all), but the Pens have to start trying to hit on some lottery tickets.

If the Pens do trade the pick, it has to be for a pre-RFA type young player who could conceivably be on the Pens’ next competitive team. Someone like Marco Rossi from the Wild or Simon Nemec from the Devils would make sense; a player who’s probably better than whomever the Pens could draft in the mid-1st, and whom they have more than enough cap space to lock up long-term.

What’s Next?

Clearly, anyone the Pens can move between now and the deadline is gonna go, and more guys might get dealt in the Summer. I would guess the amassing of picks, the timeline of the Pens’ couple current prospects, and the acquisition of a couple “bad” (but not that bad) contracts for next year would indicate that the Pens will still be in a rebuilding mode of sorts next season.

Once the Pens trade Matt Grzelcyk, their depth at left D will be: Owen Pickering, Ryan Graves, P.O. Joseph, and Ryan Shea. The best free agent left Ds on the market this offseason will be Jakob Chychrun, Ivan Provorov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and… Marcus Pettersson. Does anyone think their current D corps plus one of those guys (on a 7 year deal) is getting the team anywhere next season?

Overall, the Pens had two very obvious trade chips in Pettersson and O’Connor, and got a pick that could very well turn out to be one of the most valuable assets that gets exchanged this entire trade deadline. Outstanding work by Kyle Dubas. Dare I say… FLEECE???