NHL Playoff First Round Predictions That I TOTALLY STAND BEHIND Unless They're Wrong

Series outcomes and one ultra-specific prediction for all 8 first round series.

I don’t love making NHL playoff predictions. I prefer to watch the games with no stressful rooting interests — especially when my team is mercifully out — and predictions always make me kiiinda start pulling for my predictions. BUT, because I am a PROFESSIONAL (i.e. barely qualified guy who likes to type a lot), I’ve decided to jot down my picks so I can selectively screenshot the ones that end up being right and post them when they happen.

Capitals over Canadiens in 7

I feel like so many people are talking themselves into the Canadiens and questioning the Caps’ point total that doing the requisite “this won’t be an easy series for the Caps!” disclaimer is one of those “arguing with no one” predictions. No one thinks this is going to be a cakewalk for the Caps.

But as much as I want to push back on that narrative, I think Washington has some real cause for concern: They had the highest shooting percentage of any team in the league this year (12.61%), and Logan Thompson, who was one of the best goalies in the league this season, hasn’t played since getting blown out April 2nd and may not be fully healthy. Washington’s still good, but those two factors elevated them to the #1 seed — if either or both regress, they’re a much more run-of-the-mill playoff team.

That said, I don’t trust Montreal’s ability to defend over a 7 game series, and I think Washington’s depth will win out in the end. But man, those home playoff games in Montreal are going to be electric (and very annoying.)

Specific Prediction: Andrew Mangiapane parlays a good playoffs into a surprisingly big UFA contract with Chicago, San Jose, or Anaheim.

Hurricanes over Devils in 4

This series feels almost too straightforward. Usually, my entire persona when it comes to sports predictions is, anytime something seems too obvious or everyone is tweeting “this game’s OVER” one quarter into an NFL game, I’m the guy trying to sound smart by saying “well, let’s wait and see…” in a faux ‘wise man’ voice, and very often, I end up looking prophetic just for making the dull observation that sports are often unpredictable and can change quickly.

I just don’t see it here, though. The Devils are missing their best center and their best defenseman, and Jacob Markstrom never quite got right after his midseason injury, posting an .869 SV% from March on. The Hurricanes have their own goaltending issues, but they’re going to double up the Devils in shots this entire series, and I don’t think the Devils will have the goaltending or the finishing ability to exploit the classic “Carolina outshoots a team by 30 and still loses” Achilles heel.

Specific Prediction: We see Jake Allen in Game 1.

Maple Leafs over Senators in 6

Toronto and Ottawa are not that different by some of their underlying metrics: they’re neck & neck by 5 on 5 Expected Goal % (within one one-hundreth of a % of each other), and while Toronto got shockingly great goaltending from their tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Jacob Woll this season, it’s hard to argue that either guy is clearly better than a healthy Linus Ullmark for Ottawa.

Without getting too deep into armchair psychology, though, I do think there’s something to the fact that most of Ottawa’s top guys have never played playoff hockey before, while Toronto’s core has tremendous experience playing… well, first round games. I trust Toronto’s ability to defend and their power play more, too.

Specific Prediction: There’s a cheap shot in this series that we can’t stop talking about, and prompts both fanbases to go back and make GIFs of every other cheap shot between the two teams dating back 20 years until we’re all sick of seeing them.

Panthers over Lightning in 7

I’m fully aware that I have an underlying personal bias against the Lightning because I got so sick of their ability to win games by playing like crap at 5 on 5, drawing a questionable penalty when they needed to, and scoring on the power play to negate the previous 18 minutes of their own sucky play. This strategy, of course, only works when Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing Andrei Vasilevskiy, which he wasn’t last year (.900 SV%) but very much was again this year (.921 SV%).

Tampa improved a bit at 5-on-5 this season, but Florida is one of the best even strength teams in the league, and as much as Tampa used to have an air of playoff invincibility, we know the Panthers are just as capable of flipping a switch in the postseason (unless they’re gassed from playing like 470 games in the last two years.) I also don’t really trust Tampa’s bottom 6 at all. I think this’ll be a 60/40 type edge for the Panthers at even strength, with the series hinging on whether Tampa can make up the difference in goal and on the power play. They definitely can, but I think it’ll be a coin flip, and it’s hard to pick against this iteration of the Panthers.

Specific Prediction: Sam Bennett either re-signs with Florida for 6 years x $6.5 million, or goes to Toronto or New York for 7 years x $12 million.

Blues over Jets in 7

I’m not sure I actually believe this prediction, but there’s gotta be at least one series that defies explanation, and most of what St. Louis has done since Jim Montgomery took over — and how Winnipeg looked in last year’s playoffs — have made this series Danny’s Official “Thing I’m Not Sure I Really Believe But I Gotta Go With My Gut Even Though My Gut Doesn’t Really Believe It Either” pick. Does anyone want to sponsor this segment??

Specific Prediction: Robert Thomas leads the league in first round playoff scoring.

Avalanche over Stars in 6

I get really, really bad vibes from Dallas. They are, by all accounts, a banner organization, but I really hated their offseason, and I didn’t love their trade deadline either (trading three 1st rounders and Logan Stankoven for two wingers and a third-pairing D?) The Stars have very obvious holes on the right side of their defense, Miro Heiskanen hasn’t played since late January, and now Jason Robertson might miss the series.

Dallas theoretically has the edge in goal, but Mackenzie Blackwood was statistically on par with Oettinger this season. I do like Dallas’ center depth, but Colorado is similarly deep, and I don’t think the Stars have any D pair they can really trust against the MacKinnon line, even if Heiskanen is healthy.

Specific Prediction: Peter DeBoer gets fired after this series.

Golden Knights over Wild in 4

The Wild have gotten most of their key players back from injury, but like the Devils, everything about their team screams “we’re technically in the playoffs, but next year is our year.” Minnesota can defend, but I don’t think the Wild will be able to generate enough offense to swing the series. I could see them squeezing out some games with an “early power play goal + lock it down defensively + Gustavsson plays well = 2-1 win” formula, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do that four times.

Specific Prediction: Fleury starts Game 3 and plays out of his mind for one last feelgood story (but they lose in OT.)

Kings over Oilers in 7

The Oilers were my preseason Cup pick, but whatever, I also had the Rangers in there, so what the hell do I know? The Kings have played lockdown defensive hockey all season long, and the Oilers — while obviously possessing the series’ best players — are now missing their top left defensemen, plus we don’t really know how healthy or injured their stars truly are. It’s totally possible McDavid & Draisaitl have mostly been held out of games to rest them, and they’ll just dominate from the getgo in Game 1 and everyone who picked the Kings will feel stupid.

Even if the Oilers come out flying in Game 1, though, their depth has been horrible all season long, and they have a shaky starting goalie and no viable backup behind an already leaky defense that’s down its best defender. The Kings have had trouble scoring at times this year, but they’ve shown an incredible ability to shut opposing teams down when they need to. I trust their ability to minimize the damage from McDavid & Draisaitl as best as anyone can, and allow their superior depth & goaltending to win the long game as McDavid’s and Evan Bouchard’s 29 minutes per night adds up over the course of the series.

Specific Prediction: Warren Foegle leads the Kings with 5 goals. Also McDavid plays 58:30 in Game 7.