5 Things We Learned From The Penguins' 2025 Draft
We won't know about the players for years, but this draft taught us a lot about how Kyle Dubas plans to run things.
I’m not gonna pretend I actually know more about the thirteen children drafted by the Penguins at this weekend’s NHL Draft than the many prospect hounds whose writing and video analysis I’ve devoured to formulate an opinion on any of these people. If you want firsthand draft pick / prospect analysis, read Jesse Marshall and Taylor Haase, follow @J_a155, watch Matt Meagher’s mixtapes, read Cory Pronman & Scott Wheeler at The Athletic, and check out Elite Prospects. I’m just some guy who watches a lot of hockey games, and none of those games involve the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies.
That said, the Pens’ approach at this Draft was fascinating and unpredictable, and the weekend told us a lot about the team, the league as a whole, and where Kyle Dubas’ “can-we-finally-call-it-a-rebuild?” rebuild is headed:
1. Kyle Dubas And Co. Do Not Care About Good PR
The Penguins could’ve easily gone chalk and drafted Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson with their two 1sts (or two other consensus #11-12 picks) and come away from the draft with a nice spiffy A or A- from all the publications doing their Draft Grade columns. Instead, they made a surprising pick at #11, then traded down from #12, then took two other first round players higher than their typical public rankings.
If the Pens had taken the obvious players in those spots and those players didn’t work out, the GM probably wouldn’t have taken too much heat for it. But now, if the players they passed on do turn into top flight NHLers, or if the guys they drafted instead bust, there’s a much bigger target on Dubas and his scouting department for “overthinking things” than if they had made picks more in line with the general consensus.
Josh Yohe wrote a column to this effect, but this approach shows just how little Dubas and his front office are concerned with how anything they do “looks” to the public. They’re doing what they truly believe is the best thing for the franchise with little regard for how it’ll be received. If fans are pissed they passed on Aitcheson or Jackson Smith, that doesn’t really concern them.
The Pens reaffirmed this even more in the middle rounds when they didn’t draft local Western PA prospect L.J. Mooney, despite having three 3rd round picks and a 4th (Mooney ended up going to Montreal in the middle of the 4th.) Taking Mooney would’ve bought the team a small fun “local kid makes good” story that would’ve gotten much more buzz and positive PR than taking four other mid-round randos most fans have never heard of and who probably have very little chance of making an NHL impact. This was clearly not a high priority for the GM.
It’ll take years before we know whether or not the Pens made the right picks. But we do know, unequivically, that Dubas feels secure enough in his position to carry out this rebuild his way. Whether he can “sell” it to fans or ownership from a PR perspective, or whether he’ll get ripped on for trying to be too unconventional, is not his concern.
2. They’re Not Zeroing In On One Type Of Player
The Penguins, like every other team in the league, are trying to get bigger and “harder to play against.” They used one of their 1sts on a 6’5” son of an NHLer and another on a 6’2” forechecking monster, then took defensemen who measured 6’6”, 6’2”, and 6’3”. But they used their highest pick on a skilled 5’11” center. They also used a mid-3rd on a goalie.
Clearly, the Pens are trying to get bigger and tougher, but aren’t so tunnel-visioned about that mantra that they’ll completely bypass a slightly undersized forward who they truly believe in from a talent perspective. Plus, while they ended up taking forwards with all three of their 1st round picks, Dubas said afterwards that they weren’t set on some “forwards only” plan coming in, and they followed these three by taking three defensemen and a goalie with their next four picks.
The Penguins’ system needs everything, and they’re proceeding as if they need everything. Positions, types of players, different feeder leagues — nothing’s off limits.
3. The Pens Don’t Believe They Can Lap The Field By Being Conventional
The Pens’ prospect pool came into this weekend generally considered in the bottom half of the league, and clearly lacks a Celebrini-type franchise talent. Some of the teams who already have better prospects than the Pens added another player at the top of the 1st Round this year: the Sharks, Blackhawks, Mammoth, Predators, Sabres, Kraken, and Ducks, to name…many. The Islanders landed a major prospect at last year’s trade deadline, then lucked into the 1st overall pick, then traded Noah Dobson for two 1st rounders that netted them two more premium prospects this year.
To put it bluntly: right now, the Penguins are nowhere near as good as the league’s top contenders, and they don’t have one of the league’s best prospect pools. They have a lot of work to go to join either group.
Recognizing this fact, Dubas appears to know he’s not going to gain ground on these teams by doing some sort of autopilot rebuild. They’ve given themselves the leeway to try weird stuff like trading down in the 1st round, fetching an extra 1st, then trading back up in the late 1st and early 2nd, and taking slightly off-the-map players each time. I imagine they’ll make some more unconventional signings during the free agent period too. And the Karlsson, Rakell, and Rust trades are coming.
4. Those Extra Wins Did Cost Them
I didn’t want to rehash this one, but by all accounts, the Pens tried very hard to trade up into the top 10 to nab one of the centers (or Porter Martone, who didn’t fall,) but teams just never end up wanting to trade out of the Top 10. Losing one more meaningless game after the deadline would’ve moved them from 11 to 9, even with the Islanders & Mammoth jumping up in the lottery, and they could’ve taken Roger McQueen if they’d wanted to. Three more losses would’ve gotten them into the Top 5. It’s pointless to think about now, but it is also naive to pretend that winning extra games in a tank year doesn’t hurt you.
If the Hockey Gods reward the Pens for not tanking, maybe McQueen’s injured back starts mysteriously acting up while the Pens come away with three impact players instead of one.
Also: None of the CRaAAzzZYYY TRADES rumored with the Top 10 picks ever happen. But let’s all make sure to completely forget that again next year when the rumblings start that “EVERYTHING is on the table in THIS Draft, unlike the last 90…”
5. There’ll Be Another Crosby Trade Rumor Every Week For The Rest Of Our Lives
We had multiple “Crosby is unhappy and looking to move…” rumors again this weekend. And once again, he made the decision in complete secret, leaking it only to peripheral, Pens-unaffiliated media who never land any other scoops, but happened to land this earthshattering one. Amazing!
With the Pens likely to bottom out this year, get ready for a new one of these insinuations every single week. It’s just such an easy way for a random writer or personality to get sudden attention, or a way for fans or media to ‘wishcast’ what they want to happen, or for cut-rate websites and fake Facebook pages to have their traffic-cake and eat it too by half-assing some weekly “We’re Not Saying Crosby’s Being Traded, But If He Were, Here Are 27 Trade Packages We’d Like To See” engagement-farming schlock.
This will be our new reality. Don’t engage; just move on. Unless trading Crosby can bump the Pens up from 9 to 11 next year. Think he’ll waive for Buffalo??
Always enjoy your columns Dan.