Pens vs. Sabres Recap: Pens Almost Spoil Malkin's 500th Goal - Then Don't!

Penguins blow then un-blow Malkin's 500th goal game.

The Pens blew a lead then came back to tie the Sabres with the goalie pulled and won 6-5 on a Sidney Crosby power play goal in overtime, bringing them back up to 3-2-0 on the year. Some thoughts on tonight’s wild one:

1. Evgeni Malkin: 500 goal scorer

Thank God Malkin didn’t have to couch all his postgame “500th goal” discussion in token “but I would’ve rather won the game…” quotes.

Evgeni Malkin’s just so damn good. I hesitate to call him “underrated,” only because that word’s been so overused it sometimes feels a little like the “I was told Steph wasn’t a good shooter” meme. But the Penguins franchise being so blessed with absolutely elite all-time talents over the past four decades does cloud the perspective of just how good and how rare a player like Malkin is for any franchise that doesn’t have lottery balls rigged for them.

Malkin has almost 100 goals and 300 points more than any player in the history of the New York Rangers, a marquee franchise that’s been around since 1926. He would be the best player in franchise history for what, ten NHL teams? Fifteen? Maybe sixteen since Utah counts as a wholly new team with no franchise history (no disrespect to Dylan Guenther.)

A modest 60-point season would move Malkin into 28th place in all-time NHL scoring, ahead of Guy Lafleur, Brendan Shanahan, Dave Andreychuk, and a million other dudes who got to play against pre-1995 defense & goaltending. During the past few seasons, I think an accumilation of small injuries over the course of each year (plus some meh linemates) has eventually slowed him down, but he’s flying right now, and his ability to put his linemates in dangerous spots to score remains elite-level.

2. The Tristan Jarry situation is a five-alarm fire

Tristan Jarry has followed up his end-of-season benching from last year and the Pens re-signing his backup to a two-year extension by posting an .833 SV% through his first three games, losing one 6-0 and getting pulled in another. What in the world are the Pens supposed to do with this guy?

The bad news: with four years left on his contract, Jarry’s not getting traded anytime soon. Or at least, conventionally traded.

The…good news? Less-bad news? Some other news. The some-other news: a LOT of teams are struggling with goaltending right now. The NHL league-average save percentage dropped to .903 last year, the lowest since 05-06 (the post-lockout year with a billion power plays when Jonathan Cheechoo scored 56 goals.) So far in 2024-25, it’s down again to .899. Offense has soared leaguewide in the early going, and it’s made struggling goalies look worse than ever. Heading into Wednesday night, 13 NHL teams had a team SV% below .890.

Goaltending is volatile, and as hard as is to have any faith that Jarry’s gonna suddenly turn it around in his next start, it’s not impossible that he does, or that he would with a change of scenery. His situation also isn’t that unique. A bunch of other teams are sitting on struggling goalies with cap hits that make them tricky to move: Seattle’s Phillipp Grubauer (3 x 5.9 mil remaining), LA’s Darcy Kuemper (3 x $5.25), Columbus’s Elvis Merzlikins (3 x $5.4), Anaheim’s John Gibson (3 x $6.4), Detroit’s Ville Husso (1 x $4.75), and Colorado’s Alexandar Georgiev (1 x $3.6). There’s no way the Pens are dumping Jarry’s contract on another team for a 6th round pick anytime soon. But if the Penguins, Jarry, and another team and their struggling goalie all agree that a change of scenery would benefit all parties, I could see the Pens making some deal where they swap Jarry for another team’s also-struggling goalie (and the Pens shave off some term) just to give both guys a chance to turn it around in a new place.

3. The Michael Bunting Honeymoon Period has worn off

Michael Bunting was a nice surprise coming back in the Jake Guentzel deal last year: a presumed throw-in to balance out Guentzel’s cap hit who Dubas obviously had some familiarity with and came over with minimal expectations. But he potted 6 goals in 21 games with the Pens during their end-of-season mini-run and gave them the only thing close to an “agitator” in their group, making him an instantly welcome addition who was written in pen straight into the top-6 coming into the season.

I don’t think Bunting has been “bad,” per se, but he’s been subject to the hot-and-cold finishing streaks that every single winger in the NHL goes through (outside the Kucherovs and Pastrnaks.) His career high in goals is 23, twice, and had 21 and 16 even strength goals in those two seasons. That’s a rate of about one goal per every four games. He’s not playing on the Pens’ top power play. It’s going to be a completely normal occurrence for him to not score for 5, 6, 7 games at a time, at least; he’ll also have one or two really cold stretches that dip into double digits, but he’ll also have runs where he scores 2-3 goals in a game or scores a few games in a row.

I’m not particularly worried about him yet, but his start to the season (0 goals, 1 assist through 5 games) is a sobering reminder of what normal production from an OK top-9 winger sometimes looks like. Last season gave us a glimpse of what he can look like when he’s playing well with one of the Pens’ top centers. I suspect he’ll just score in one of the next couple games and exhale a bit before it becomes a major issue. But this is what a standard 20-goal winger looks like sometimes.

4. Are any of these young East teams EVER going to “take the next step?”

The old-ass, no-defense, struggling-goalies Pens have now already beaten Detroit, Montreal, and Buffalo on the season. Montreal is still in rebuild-mode even if they’re expecting to be a bit better this year, but Buffalo and Detroit (and Ottawa) definitely have their sights set on on a playoff spot this season. Every year, we keep wondering which one of these young Atlantic Division teams that’s been stockpiling prospects for a decade will finally take that “next step” and contend, and every year, they fall short. Are they seriously all going to suck again?

It’s early, but if the Pens actually are gonna make a run at a playoff bubble spot, teams like Detroit and Buffalo are exactly who they’re up against. So far, it appears those teams are still curled up comfortably on the previous step, which remains nice & warm from where they’ve been laying the last couple years. But they might take the next one any second now!! Out of their way maybe!!!

5. Man, we haven’t even scratched the surface on Karlsson Discourse yet this season

I forgot how annoying it was to talk about Erik Karlsson last year. A lot of fans clearly hated him too much, and ripped on everything he did and wanted him benched and whatever else the people who’ve been mad at Letang for the past 15 years always want. But also… he really does fuck up a LOT. For no reason! And sometimes, when fans would correctly criticize him for some stupid play (like when he was flat-footed in the neutral zone for no reason against Buffalo and turned a nothing situation into a breakaway), it was hard not to sound like one of those fans on twitter who’s always yelling at their team’s best offensive defenseman.

I promise I understand the value of offensive defensemen! I understand how puck possession and possession metrics and expected goals and everything work, and I know that sometimes players make mistakes as a result of always trying to make a play instead of just dumping it in and passing the buck. But sometimes… guys just fuck up! And Karlsson does it a ton! It’s not ignorant to notice and mention that!

Well, he redeemed himself on the OT pass, so, that’s probably the last we’ll talk about him this season. Whew! Discourse over.