Should The Penguins Fire Mike Sullivan?

Even in a rebuilding year, at what point is enough enough?

The Penguins are really bad and they’re not going anywhere. As of their Tuesday night regulation loss to the Minnesota Wild, they are the second worst team in the entire NHL by points percentage. They are objectively one of the two or three worst teams in the league defensively. They’ve lost six games in a row, and have a conference-worst minus-15 goal differential. Is it time to finally fire Mike Sullivan?

In any normal season, if the Pens were a team that was trying to win, the answer would be an obvious and overwhelming “yes.” But their current situation is a little more complicated. When Kyle Dubas (and Fenway Sports Group) elected to retain Mike Sullivan this offseason after missing the playoffs for a second straight year, then spent the Summer signing guys to one-year deals and taking on bad contracts for draft picks, their plan was overwhelmingly clear: the Penguins are going to be trade deadline sellers and get as high of a draft pick as they can, and if that’s the case, why pay another coach on top of Mike Sullivan’s $5 million when they’re not even really trying?

Dubas has spoken glowingly of Sullivan in the past, and FSG obviously liked him enough to offer him a preemptive extension that long outlasted that of his former general manager. But I have no doubt both entities are well aware that he’s past his expiration date, and that he won’t be coaching the next actually-competitive iteration of the Penguins. So the question is, when do things become so bad, even in a tanking year, that a coaching change is warranted?

The Case Against Firing Sullivan:

If the Penguins are going to be bad, they might as well be as bad as possible. Why bring in another coach and try to go on a token “run” when they’re not going anywhere anyway? Sell at the deadline, take the draft pick, and re-evaluate in the Summer when Sullivan’s completed another year of his contract.

There’s no point in bringing in a Jay Woodcroft or Todd McLellan type in the middle of this mess of a season to try to whip the Penguins into some sort of “shape.” At best, the team would go on a run like the end of last year, maybe snag a wildcard spot, and be cannon fodder for some team in the first round. Far more likely, they’d just stabilize slightly, still miss the playoffs, and end up with a pick around the #10 spot or early teens instead of potentially the top 5.

Also, if the next coach they hire is someone they plan to build around long-term, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to drop them into a situation where their general manager is actively trying to trade everyone on the team before the season’s over and is quietly rooting for a low finish. FSG would also be paying two head coaches, which isn’t a giant problem, but isn’t ideal when the Pens’ attendance this season certainly isn’t guaranteed.

The Case For Firing Sullivan:

If the Penguins remain this much of an incoherent mess, none of the players they’re planning to deal at the deadline will be worth as much as they can be. Even if the team isn’t going anywhere, there’s something to be said for at least providing some degree of entertainment to give fans any reason to continue buying tickets or tuning in to the remaining seventy-one games in the season. Plus, if their goal is to work more young players into the roster as the season goes along, particularly after the deadline, do they really want these players’ first NHL experience to come on a team in active free fall that can’t even do the most basic tasks correctly?

The simplest solution? Fire Sullivan and promote David Quinn or Mike Vellucci to interim head coach to play out the year. There’s no reason to hire an external coach at this point in their rebuild cycle. Quinn or Vellucci at least gives them a new-ish voice behind the bench, it might improve the overall vibes, and could potentially stabilize them out of “unwatchable mess” territory and into a proper, dignified tank.

I doubt the team would go on any sort of actual run (though it’s not impossible — there literally are over seventy games left in the season), and even if they do, I doubt any sort of token win streak would scare Dubas out of still selling everyone he can at the deadline. The change would likely still be minor enough to keep them well on track to getting a lottery pick. They can then do a proper head coaching search in the offseason without having committed to someone.

The Verdict?

Personally, I think firing Sullivan and promoting an internal interim head coach is the most sensible option. I’d give Sullivan a few more games because there’s a chance the Pens at least bounce back to the “passable” level they were at before the Canada trip, which is exactly where they need to be: not a total mess, but well-positioned to sell at the deadline and get a high pick. But if this losing streak continues and the wheels truly come off, then I’d switch over to Quinn or Vellucci on an interim basis, make sure both of them know the drill (do your best, but this team is still in “collecting assets” mode - “see if you can help Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor and all the other UFAs really elevate their games before, let’s say, the first week of March…”), and re-assess in the offseason.

The real question is: who coaches the team next season? Will this team actually be in a position to do a proper coaching search and give a multiyear contract to Jay Woodcroft, or a rising-star assistant coach, or some other high-profile coach that gets fired this year? What if someone like Jim Montgomery, Andrew Brunette, or Jared Bednar becomes available? Unlikely the Pens would be their first choice, but would the Pens even be in a position to pursue someone like that, or would they enter a second rebuilding year with Quinn or Vellucci at the helm? Would they be looking more at a Ryan Huska (CAL) or Greg Cronin (ANA) type who knows they’re coming into a rebuild but hopes to stick around for the competitive years? I would not be surprised if the front office foresees Wilkes-Barre’s Kirk Macdonald as a future NHL option, but surely not as soon as next year.

I think Sullivan’s gonna get a few more weeks at the helm no matter what happens. The Pens will either stabilize slightly, or sink so deep that no token late run will drag them out of getting a good lottery pick anyway. I’m sure Dubas would be fine with either thing happening. And while I went into the year thinking there was no way they’d fire Sullivan because there’s not really any point to making a coaching change during a write-off season, given how the team actually looks right now, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Quinn or Vellucci is the one giving press conferences in the back half of the season.

Who coaches the team next season, though? Just as retaining Sullivan gave away Dubas’ true intentions for this season, the answer to that question will tell us everything we need to know about how long this team plans on being bad. Or at least, bad on purpose.