The Penguins Have $52 Million In Cap Space Next Season. Does It Even Matter?
The Pens have a TON of cap space next year. They won't be able to do much with it.
The Penguins are clearly in a rebuild-adjacent holding pattern for a second straight season, with general manager Kyle Dubas stockpiling future assets, avoiding any long-term financial commitments, and making their veterans available for trade. They also have a bunch of contracts expiring after this season, and are currently on track to have over $52 million in cap space in the 2026-27 season, and that’s before trading any of Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, or Erik Karlsson. They also have no major restricted free agents they need to pay long-term.
Looking at the Pens’ cap space for next Summer, there’s been a growing sentiment that the Pens are spending one more year in semi-tank mode, then will be poised to expedite the rebuild next offseason when they have a ton of money at their disposal. I don’t think that’s the case. After what we’ve seen from this offseason, I don’t think the Pens’ sudden windfall of cap space is going to speed up their rebuild in any meaningful way. Here’s why:
1. Every team has cap space
Right now, with free agency mostly over, the Penguins are one of thirteen NHL franchises that still has more than $10 million in cap space remaining this year. That number will dwindle when some teams extend their RFAs, but still, right now, teams are gaining cap space faster than they can even spend it.
Next year, with the cap going up even more, this will continue to be the case. Obviously, it’s better to have lots of cap space than not when you’re trying to improve your team, but the Pens’ massive-sounding “$52 million” number doesn’t give them some huge leg up on most of the rest of the league.
As the cap rises to $113 million in over next two seasons, the Pens will merely be one of many teams with a boatload of cap space, rather than some team uniquely positioned to take advantage of capped-out teams like they might have been during the flat-cap years.
2. Cap space isn’t as valuable as it once was
Because so many teams have cap space, the days of teams trading 2nd round picks to move Kevin Hayes’ $3.5 million or a 3rd to move Cody Glass’ $2.5 million are mostly over. Decent players with too-high cap hits were being traded this offseason for actual draft picks, rather than teams needing to include draft picks just to dump them: Vancouver traded for Evander Kane’s $5.1 mil, Chicago traded for Andrei Burakovsky’s 2 x $5.5 mil, Nashville traded for Erik Haula’s $3.1 mil, and so on.
The Pens’ trade for Matt Dumba was the only cap dump this offseason so far where a team had to include a draft pick sweetener to make it happen. Even then, the 2nd rounder the Pens got back isn’t until 2028, and the Pens included a serviceable depth D in Vladislav Kolyachonok. It’s still a sensible trade for a rebuilding team like the Pens, but these opportunities are becoming rarer and rarer.
We might eventually get back to a place where teams are so capped out that they’re desperate to include draft picks to dump guys, but right now, most teams need players more than they need cap space, and they’ve been all too willing to take on fine-but-overpaid players like Burakovsky. The Pens might be able to swing another Dumba style deal, but I don’t think they’re going to get anything huge back for taking on contracts anytime soon, and certainly not in any way that would meaningfully speed up the rebuild.
3. Very few impact free agents actually made it to the market
Mitch Marner forced his way to Vegas and signed an 8-year extension. Vladislav Gavrikov seemingly had his mind set on New York from day one. Brock Boeser re-signed in Vancouver. Ivan Provorov re-signed in Columbus. Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Aaron Ekblad all re-signed in Florida.
Basically none of the top unrestricted free agents this year made it into an actual “bidding war” besides Nikloaj Ehlers, who ended up having like 24 teams trying to sign him before eventually picking Carolina for 6 years x $8.5 million.
Kyle Dubas has already said that July 1st isn’t a great day to find value. That’s even more true now with so many teams extending their own free agents, then the couple free agents that do hit the market having basically every contender vie for their services. Even if the Penguins did decide to go on some free agent “splurge” next offseason — which already would be a questionable course of action — they probably couldn’t even sign that many interesting players.
Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman even said as much: “We didn’t even get a chance to talk to those guys [the top free agents]. They all signed with their clubs or were traded before free agency. Not much we can do about that.” The Red Wings are still sitting on $12 million in cap space they tried to spend and couldn’t.
4. The cost to trade for good restricted free agents is astronomical
With the Pens likely to forego the unrestricted free agent route, one way they could make a “splash” next offseason is by targeting a high profile RFA: someone who’s younger than the typical UFA, has more upside, and fits their timeline better.
But again, look at the RFAs that did get dealt this offseason so far: Noah Dobson got traded to Montreal for two mid-first round picks that turned into Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson, two very high quality prospects. K’Andre Miller got traded to Carolina for a conditional 1st, a 2nd, and Scott Morrow, one of Carolina’s top prospects. J.J. Peterka forced his way out of Buffalo and still got traded for Michael Kesselring, a 25-year-old defenseman, and Josh Doan, a 23-year-old former 2nd round winger.
It’s easy to look at the list of potential RFAs next season and dream: Jason Robertson, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Thomas Harley, and more (not even counting Connor Bedard who I have to think is a million percent unavailable.) As we’ve said, though, teams like Utah and Columbus are gonna have more than enough cap space to re-sign their guys, and if someone like Dallas does for some reason decide they want to deal either Robertson or Harley, there’ll be 20 teams lining up to trade for them. Do we really think the Pens are in a position to outbid everyone else for a player like that next offseason? They just started rebuilding — are they really going to start trading multiple 1sts and 2nds at a time when they could conceivably finish in the bottom 5 of the league?
Even if the Pens do decide to pursue a high-profile RFA, cap space won’t be the issue. There’ll be more than enough teams in the league willing to give any of these RFAs whatever they want. It’ll come down to which team can give up the best assets in a trade, and I don’t think the Pens are in a great spot to be outbidding so many other win-now teams who have way more picks & prospects than they do as soon as next season.
Also, can we drop the “offer sheet” talk? They almost never happen and it’d make no sense for the Pens to give up their own 1st rounder when they’re still likely a lottery team.
5. Do the Pens have much to offer besides money?
Next year’s free agent class looks really impressive right now. I assume less than half of those names will still be available come next July, but for the sake of argument, say some high profile free agents like Jack Eichel or Kirill Kaprizov do make it to the market… why would they sign with Pittsburgh?
Yes, the Penguins could offer them a max contract, but so could like 15 other teams in the league. Players have also shown again and again that they want to play in places where they can win, or where they have a specific connection, or they like the lifestyle, or they want a no-tax state. Maybe someone really wants to play with Sidney Crosby, but is playing with 40-year-old Crosby for the beginning of a 7 year contract really gonna be a tiebreaking draw for most of these guys? Also, after those top couple names, would going big on Martin Necas or Adrian Kempe even move the needle for the 2026-27 Pens?
Overall, the Pens are doing the right thing by stockpiling futures and being as creative and proactive as possible in reshaping their current roster. But given how this past offseason played out, and with the cap set to increase a lot for two more seasons, I don’t think the Penguins’ oft-cited “$52 million in cap space” next year means they’ll suddenly flip some switch and become buyers.
Of course, when the Pens win the McKenna lottery and all the above becomes moot, feel free to ‘freezing cold takes’ this column. In the meantime, strap in for the MATT DUMBA ERA, baby!!
