What Is Rickard Rakell's Trade Value?

The Pens won't move Rakell unless they get a significant offer. But what IS a significant offer, realistically?

Rickard Rakell is the most notable Penguin near the top of most websites’ Trade Deadline lists this year, ranking #2 on The Athletic’s trade board, #9 on the TSN board, and #9 on Daily Faceoff’s list. He’s in the middle of a resurgent 25-goal season and is on pace to top 30 for the first time since 2018, and he’s signed for three more seasons after this one at a $5.0 million cap hit, along with an 8-team no-trade list.

The Athletic’s Josh Yohe has reported that Kyle Dubas is content to hold on to Rakell into the Summer but would listen if someone makes a “hefty offer.” So what is a hefty offer for Rakell? Let’s break it down:

How Do Teams View Rakell’s Three Years Left On His Contract?

At the 2024 Trade Deadline, no players with term got traded except for Tomas Hertl. Every other deal involved rentals, because when the cap was flat year-to-year, even competing teams didn’t want to acquire players that would potentially mess up their cap flexibility in the Summer. In that cap environment, no one in the league would’ve wanted to be on the hook for Rakell’s long-term cap hit at all, let alone trade something for it.

For the next three seasons, the cap is primed to increase significantly each year, which will have two effects: 1) Obviously, teams will have more cap room, and 2) Free agents are going to start costing more in accordance with the cap increase. In that cap environment, having someone like Rakell already under contract for $5 million might actually be a plus, because signing a potential 30 goal scorer on the open market is going to cost way more money and way more years.

I still don’t think every team will feel this way; GMs love to sign guys to long-term deals themselves, but hate trading for other teams’ contracts. Maybe it’s a psychological thing, where GMs feel more comfortable with a contract they signed because it makes the player their guy. Or maybe GMs are just always confident they can outsmart the market. But at the very least, the cap increase should make the Rakell contract palatable to some teams, if not outright desirable.

What Are Some Comparable Trades?

Before this past month’s bizarre Mikael Granlund trade to Dallas, a winger hadn’t been traded for a 1st round pick since Alex DeBrincat went from Ottawa to Detroit in July 2023. DeBrincat was a 25-year-old restricted free agent who already had two 40 goal seasons under his belt — in theory, a much more valuable commodity than Rakell, even if Ottawa was under some pressure from the player to make a deal.

DeBrincat fetched a 1st, a 4th, a 3rd round prospect, and throw-in forward Domanik Kubalik. This February, San Jose sent Granlund and Cody Ceci — both rentals — to Dallas for a 1st and a 3rd round pick. And we all remember the Jake Guentzel trade from last year, in which Guentzel — a rental who was injured, but also who had a much deeper resume than Rakell’s — brought back a high 2nd (that could have become a 1st), a 5th, three mid-level prospects, and forward Michael Bunting.

I think this spectrum of deals represents the absolute maximum the Pens would ever get back in a Rakell trade. They will not be getting a 1st and a significant prospect or roster player. A 1st would probably be the most significant piece, along with potentially a throw-in prospect, pick, or roster player. The Pens could potentially nudge the value up to the higher side by taking back a contract like they did with Danton Heinen and Vincent Desharnais in the Marcus Pettersson trade.

Should The Pens Consider Keeping Rakell?

No. I do not get the line of thinking that “The Pens need to keep someone around for Crosby to play with.” Why? Is Crosby like a toddler on an airplane who we have to keep distracted with a busy book because if he turns around and sees what we’ve done to the team around him, he’ll start crying and throwing a tantrum?

I’m pretty sure Sidney Crosby knows who’s on the rest of the team. He doesn’t just play with Rust & Rakell then come off the ice and go “that was fun, our team rules!” then put on a sleeping mask and nap through Ryan Graves and P.O. Joseph flailing around until it’s time to go back on the ice. Sullivan tells everyone “If Sid asks if the other lines are as good as his, you HAVE to tell him YES, or he’ll suddenly realize we suck and are rebuilding!”

One year ago, Rakell’s contract looked like an unmovable anchor. Now he’s a legitimately desired trade target. The Pens have to cash that in before another injury or a drop-off in performance closes that window again.

Trading Rakell will also open up a spot on Crosby’s wing to potentially pump up the value of a different winger — either someone on the team or a Summer acquisition — and make them next year’s Rakell at the trade deadline.

The Pens could deal Rakell at the deadline, or this Summer. But they have to deal him.

So, What Should The Pens Aim For?

A 1st round pick should be the main target, and should be a gettable return with the lack of quality goal scorers available and so many teams trying to get better both now and this Summer. But, not all 1st round picks are created equal. A pick in the teens is, obviously, a significantly different asset that a pick at the tail end of the round. Also, given that most prospect writers believe the 2026 draft class looks much stronger than the 2025 class, the year of the pick factors in too.

I think their ideal target is either a 2026 1st from anyone, or a 2025 pick from one of the current bubble teams, maybe something in the 13-20 range. Failing that, you might have to settle for an early 2nd or a 2026 2nd plus a medium prospect or roster guy — some combination of assets like the Guentzel trade.

Ok, Dan, You’ve Written In This Dispassionate Third-Person Voice With A Lot Of “Probablys” For A Really Long Article Now. How About You Make A God Damn Prediction?

Whoa, relax, bold font. I’m getting there. [Was clearly not getting there, now desperately sweating.]

My first step would be: ask this year’s contenders for their 2026 1st round pick. It’s a stronger draft year, plus a lot of the top contenders have already traded their 2025 1sts, and a lot of the mid-level contenders (in the Ottawa / Detroit level) might want to hang on to their 2025 picks because they’ll still be decently high.

I think the L.A. Kings make the most sense here, but fitting Rakell into their current cap situation might be tricky. Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Ottawa would be fits, but they might be on Rakell’s 8-team no-trade list. Minnesota would make sense; they already dealt their 2025 1st and might not want to do that two years in a row, but they also have a ton of prospects coming up, so they could take the hit. Would Utah do it, or are they keeping their picks to make an even bigger splash?

If there’s no takers from that list, I think the Pens should keep Rakell and shop him in the Summer to the wide array of rebuilding and mid-level teams that are desperate to take that “next step.” I’d especially target teams who have extra 1sts (teams seem to always be extra-willing to trade away someone else’s 1st.) This would include: Chicago, Montreal, Nashville, Columbus, San Jose, and maybe Philly. They could also circle back with Detroit or Ottawa, or see if Anaheim wants a reunion. But of that group, Chicago makes the most sense.

All that said, I’ll predict Rakell goes to the Kings this trade deadline for a 2026 1st (top-8 protected) and a throw-in prospect. If that falls through, they can send him to Chicago in the Summer for the extra 1st round pick they have from Toronto. So, given how well I did on trade deadline predictions last season, you can pretty much take it to the bank that Rakell’s playing out the rest of his contract with the Pens. He might even extend.