What Would A Tristan Jarry Trade Actually Look Like?
Ranking potential Jarry destinations from least to most likely.
When the Pens benched Tristan Jarry for roughly 47 consecutive starts last Spring, a lot of fans wondered if it marked the beginning of the end for Jarry’s tenure in Pittsburgh, even though he’d just been signed to a 5-year x $5.375 million contract the previous Summer. It was clear Mike Sullivan had lost faith in Jarry, at least temporarily, but with 4 years remaining at over $5 million a year, and goalie trades already weirdly difficult in the NHL, and the rest of the league having also just witnessed Jarry’s monthlong benching, what team was actually going to trade for Tristan Jarry?
In the past week, though, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Joonas Korpisalo — two players with way more unmovable-seeming contracts than Jarry’s — both got moved, plus three goalie trades (Kuemper for Dubois, Markstrom to Jersey, and Ullmark for Korpisalo-plus) actually got completed. The Penguins extended backup (or IS he???) goalie Alex Nedeljkovic for 2 years x $2.5 million. The cap has gone up, the goalie free agent market is only so-so, a lot of teams are under pressure to improve this offseason, and Elliotte Friedman confirmed that Tristan Jarry is on the trade market. Is this really going to happen?
Let’s go through the teams in the league to see which one might be a candidate for a plausible Tristan Jarry trade, ranked from “least likely” to “hey…this might work?”
Teams With No-Doubt Starters
31-22. Teams that have absolute, no-doubt, locked-in starters who aren’t going anywhere include: Winnipeg (Hellebuyck), Dallas (Oettinger), Vancouver (Demko), Florida (Bobrovsky), Boston (Swayman), Tampa Bay (Vasilevskiy), Ottawa (Ullmark), NY Rangers (Shesterkin), NY Islanders (Sorokin), and New Jersey (Markstrom). None of them are trading for Jarry or any other goalie with a cap hit.
Teams With Expensive Incumbents
21. Seattle
20. St. Louis
19. Los Angeles
18. Columbus
Seattle still has Philipp Grubauer for 3 years x $5.9 mil; St. Louis still has Jordan Binnington for 3 years x $6 mil. Binnington had a quietly excellent season, and Seattle’s eventual-starter Joey Daccord was solid too, so neither team really needs Jarry right now, plus the Pens wouldn’t want to take back a goalie with a higher AAV than Jarry.
Los Angeles just acquired Darcy Kuemper’s $5 mil cap hit. Columbus could definitely use Jarry, but I can’t imagine what they would have to attach to Elvis Merzlikins’ 3 x $5.4 to make the Pens interested in taking him back. There’s no fit here.
They Have Starters
17. Edmonton
16. Toronto
Stuart Skinner only makes $2.6 million for each of the next two years and he just took the team to Game 7 of the Cup Finals, plus the Oilers are stuck with Jack Campbell’s $5 mil contract in the minors and have two rather important extensions they need to take care of in the next two years.
Toronto just extended Jacob Woll for 3 years, and while they definitely need a second goalie to pair with him, it won’t be a guy that makes $5+ mil when they’re in a perpetual cap crunch.
Not Their Style
15. Vegas
14. Carolina
Vegas is in on everybody big, but that would mean more of a Juuse Saros type trade or someone who’s off everyone’s radar, plus they have two goalies in Adin Hill and Logan Thompson who are cheaper than Jarry (Thompson makes $766k) and have better recent track records.
I did think Jarry going to Carolina last year on a 1-year deal and tearing it up was a possible nightmare scenario, but that team’s facing a ton of free agent departures this offseason and has “goalie by committe’d” every year. No reason to think they’d divert from that strategy unless it was for someone way more reliable than Jarry.
They Have Starters…Or Do They??
13. Utah
12. Montreal
11. Buffalo
10. Washington
Utah inherits Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka from the Coyotes, two intriguing incumbents in their late-20s who make less than $5 mil combined. I’m sure they’ll look to make a splash this offseason, but I doubt “acquire a goalie who was worse than Ingram and twice the cost” is that splash.
Buffalo and Montreal are both looking to improve this year and could easily swing Jarry’s salary, but a deal would only make sense if either team views Jarry as a several-million-dollars-better option than Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen (a current RFA) or Sam Montembault (3 x $3.1 mil), which he wasn’t last year.
Washington’s only rostered NHL goalie is Charlie Lindgren, a 30-year-old signed for just one more year at a measly $1.1 million, but he was really good last year. They definitely need to add another goalie, but if they intend on starting and most-likely extending Lindgren, Jarry’s money would be annoying after next year.
The Ultimate Wildcard
9. Nashville
Juuse Saros is entering the last year of his contract in Nashville, and if they’re not positive they can extend him (if they even want to), they have to listen to offers this Summer. They do have highly-touted 22-year-old prospect Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings, but he’s only played 3 career NHL games. If they don’t get a viable starter back in any Saros deal, they’ll need a goalie who can handle a starter’s workload while they ease Askarov into the pros. Could Jarry be that guy?
Nashville can easily handle Jarry’s salary next year, and they could toss the Pens some token draft pick or minor prospect without breaking a sweat. Mitch Korn, Nashville’s newly-minted director of goaltending, does have a “goalie whisperer” reputation and could certainly work with someone who’s shown the flashes Jarry has. The hangup is, if Askarov does take over the crease after next season and earns a starter’s RFA extension, they might not want all those extra seasons of Jarry on the books.
Tricky, But Possible
8. Anaheim
7. Colorado
Anaheim doesn’t have a pressing need for a 29-year-old $5.3 mil goalie when they have 24-year-old Lukas Dostal set to take over as their #1 next year (coming off a white-hot .939 in his 8-game World Championships Gold Medal run.) But they also don’t have a need for John Gibson, a 30-year-old $6.3 mil goalie with declining numbers who’s been on the Matt Dumba Memorial Perpetual Trading Block for what feels like the past decade. If the Pens felt Gibson had any bounceback potential and wanted one less year of term than Jarry’s deal, and got Anaheim to either pick up some salary or attach a legitimate asset, maybe the long-awaited “Gibson to Pens” deal does happen.
The risk is that Gibson’s been flat-out way worse than Jarry the past couple seasons, and while it’s tempting to say “well of course, Anaheim sucks,” Dostal posted markedly better numbers than Gibson, plus the Pens weren’t exactly the Lemaire Trap Devils defensively in front of Jarry. Would Anaheim want to give up an asset or eat money plus take on a $5 mil contract for what amounts to a “let’s give both guys a change of scenery” deal? Hard to say. They seem to at least be talking up Gibson as a legitimate trade asset to goalie-starved teams, but the fact no one’s bitten in three years might tell them how the rest of the league actually values his play and contract.
Colorado’s Alexandar Georgiev posted an unseemly .897 SV% last season, but had a stellar .918 the year before (goalies, amiright??) He only has 1 year and $3.4 million remaining, so the Pens could easily take him back in any Jarry deal. But does Colorado view Jarry as a better bet in goal than just hoping Georgiev bounces back? If all they have to do to get Jarry is swap contracts — taking on just under $2 million more and 4 years of term, but no assets — it’s a way easier goalie trade for them than the assets plus extension money it’d cost them to land Saros. It’s tough to imagine a GM saying “we can’t trust our goalie in the playoffs…let’s go get Tristan Jarry!” But the Avs did bet on the unproven Georgiev over re-signing Darcy Kuemper after a Cup run, so they’re not afraid to roll the dice on goalie randomness.
Easy Fits, But Would He Waive To Go There?
6. Chicago
5. San Jose
Chicago gave 32-year-old Petr Mrazek a not-insigificant 2-year x $4.25 mil extension back in January, and they need everything else on the roster right now, so they might not be in the market for a goalie. But they have enough cap space to handle a $9 mil goalie tandem while they have so many up-and-coming young forwards, and even if they don’t include Mrazek back in a Jarry deal, they could trade him at the deadline or next offseason.
San Jose could easily fit Jarry’s contract, and the prospect of another team coming to them and saying “hey, want a pretty good goalie pre-signed for a token draft pick?” might be pretty painless and intriguing if they’re looking to ascend to “not rock bottom” this year. But Jarry’s contract carries a 12-team no-trade list; if San Jose is on it (which is likely), would he really waive to go be the starter behind an entire defensive depth chart that looks like a normal team’s healthy scratches? If he would, and the Sharks want someone to start them back on the path to respectability, this would be an easy fit. San Jose only has Mackenzie Blackwood under contract for one more year and no up-and-coming goalies anywhere close to needing a starter’s extension.
The Best Fits
4. Minnesota
The Wild are rumored to be trying to move Filip Gustavsson and his 2 x $3.75 this offseason, which would leave them with a goalie tandem of just 39-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury (in his final season), and 21-year-old former 1st rounder Jesper Wallstedt, who only played 3 games in the NHL last year. That’s a very risky proposition, whether they’re trying to compete or if they just don’t want to put Wallstedt in an impossible spot if Fleury gets injured. They'll need to add another goalie. And who was Bill Guerin’s star AHL netminder when he was GM of Wilkes-Barre? You guessed it.
The problem is, Minnesota’s under a major cap squeeze because the Suter/Parise buyouts are costing the team $14+ million this year; trading Gustavsson’s salary just to take on Jarry’s larger salary doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. But it could be possible if the Pens (or someone else) takes back Marcus Johansson’s 1 x $2 mil in any deal. The Wild moving Gustavsson and Johansson (either together or in separate deals) would be a push with Jarry’s salary, and they could roll a Jarry/Fleury tandem and gradually work in Wallstedt, then next year, they’d have a ~$6 mil Jarry/Wallstedt tandem with the salaries of Fleury and Gustavsson both off the books and $14 million back from the buyouts.
It’s probably still more likely they trade Gustavsson then add a cheap backup guy to play with Fleury or hang out in the AHL, but I’d at least have a conversation. If they dealt the goalies straight-up, Gustavsson would be a nice fit on the Pens in a tandem with Nedeljkovic, but I think it’s more likely he goes elsewhere for futures.
3. Calgary
The Flames just traded Markstrom, and while they do have prospect Dustin Wolf ready to shoulder a bigger load, he only played 17 games last year and posted an uneven .893 SV%. Calgary still has enough veterans under contract that they probably won’t try to outright-tank (the operative word there is, try,) and they sometimes have trouble luring free agents, so Jarry’s 4 years of term — provided, again, he’d actually waive to go there — might be an asset to them. The Pens could easily take back Dan Vladar’s 1 x $2.2 in any deal if necessary. And hell, the Pens will take Andrew Mangiapane’s 1 x $5.8 mil too while they’re at it. Jarry’s even from British Columbia, which is only one province over from Alberta! Sounds pretty close to me! He’ll be a (West half of Canada) hometown hero!!!
2. Philadelphia
There is NO logical reason this wouldn’t make sense other than “it’s too weird.” Philly was playoff bound last year until Carter Hart got disappeared and they had to run out the league’s worst goalie tandem of Sam Ersson, Ivan Fedotov Felix Sandstrom, and Cal Petersen, who combined for an .880 SV% behind a John Tortorella coached team. If they had Jarry’s .903, they sail into the playoffs, easily.
Philly has Matvei Michkov arriving next season — they may not be full-on contenders yet, but they’ll never find out if they are contenders if they keep rolling out .880 goaltending. They’re sunk before the season starts if they can’t find someone resembling an average goaltender.
The biggest hangup — aside from “would these teams who couldn’t even agree on a damn Mark Streit trade ever actually consider speaking to one another” — is that the Flyers barely have any cap space next season despite seeming like they did a teardown last year. They have a bunch of buyout candidates and plenty of inessential pending UFAs, but adding a $5 mil goalie could be tricky. I could see them signing former Phantom Anthony Stolarz for a local-ish boy reunion. But Jarry’s numbers and workload over the past 4 seasons would be a godsend to their current roster.
Flyers Send: A 2025 2nd rd pick (they have two) and one of Cam Atkinson (1 x $5.8), Cal Petersen (1 x $3.85), or Ryan Johansen (1 x $4) to the Pens for Jarry. Pens get a better asset in exchange for taking back one of Philly’s useless contracts (which they could bury or buy out); Flyers get an actual viable starting goalie without raising their cap hit. Tell me this doesn’t make sense.
1. Detroit
The Red Wings got better-than-expected goaltending from their #2 and #3 guys, Alex Lyon and James Reimer, but Reimer is a free agent, Lyon only has one more year at $900k and his career high in games played before last season was 15, and their starter, Ville Husso, struggled with injuries and only played 19 games.
Steve Yzerman said this about adding a goalie: “We will look at the goalie market and if something makes sense for us to do that we think improves us, whether that be via trade or free agency, we’re not opposed to doing that… But having said that, I don’t anticipate using prime assets, whatever you would consider those to be, to really go out and acquire an older goaltender that might not be here in two, three, four years from now.”
The Red Wings clearly need one more goalie, but don’t want to trade a prime asset for a veteran who might leave after a year (likely a reference to Saros or Ullmark). So how about trading a non-prime asset for a veteran who’ll be there for four years? The Wings have no long-term starting goalies on their roster, they have tons of cap space, and they desperately need to improve this season. How about this humble, pragmatic trade suggestion?
Red Wings Send: Ville Husso (1 x $4.75 mil) to the Pens for Jarry, straight up. Detroit gets a more reliable #1 to pair with Lyon without giving up an asset or taking on a big cap hit, and get someone to pair with top goalie prospect Sebastian Cossa as he makes his way into the league over the next few years. The Pens get out of Jarry’s term, spare him another season in a soured relationship, shave off $600k in cap room, and roll the dice on another struggling Red Wing goalie coming off injury issues, with no commitment past this season. They start with Nedeljkovic/Husso and work in Joel Blomqvist and/or Filip Larsson if one of them struggles or gets hurt, and they can easily deal Husso at the deadline if need be.
It’d amount to Dubas essentially washing his hands of the Jarry contract a year after signing it, but at this point, in this trade market, wouldn’t you take it?
