Why The Pens Should Save Their Biggest Trades Until The Summer

The market for the Pens' veterans could get even better when the cap balloons and more teams get involved.

The Penguins currently sit 8th from last place in the NHL and are in full-on sell mode after dealing Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to the Canucks in a deal I really liked. So who’s the next player to go before the deadline?

The Athletic’s Josh Yohe, who has his finger on the pulse of the team more than anyone, wrote a column sorting the Pens’ players into categories by their likelihood of getting dealt. One theme that creeps up over and over regarding the players who aren’t pending free agents is the notion that Dubas might hold on to them until after the season, because the trade return in the Summer might be higher.

In most normal years, I would chalk this up as posturing by the GM to act like he has some leverage and is comfortable holding on to his players, even if the season is lost and players like Rickard Rakell are in the middle of resurgent bounceback seasons they might not repeat in future years. But if you look at the overall NHL landscape right now, it’s very possible that these players will be more valuable this Summer than they are right now. Here’s why:

1. More Teams Will Be Looking To Add This Summer

Right now, somewhere between 21-25 teams have a realistic shot of making the playoffs. That number will likely dwindle between now and the actual trade deadline, but it’s a healthy contingent of potential contenders who could realistically be looking to add. It’s definitely possible that some of them would make a nice offer for Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, or Alex Nedeljkovic.

However, consider the group of teams that won’t be adding at this trade deadline. Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Buffalo, and (potentially) Montreal and Columbus are all teams that have already bottomed-out in their rebuild and are looking to get better as soon as next season. They also have ample prospects from their rebuilds, some of them have extra draft picks, and a few of them (Anaheim, Buffalo, and Columbus in particular) have trouble attracting free agents. All of this points to a group that might be very willing to part with picks or prospects in the offseason to acquire win-now players with term, and would have better potential assets to move than the group of current contenders.

Nashville, Seattle, Utah, and potentially St. Louis are all teams who were in “win-now” mode this offseason and flopped, but will still be looking to improve in the offseason. If Boston, the Rangers, and the Islanders fade, they’ll be in this category too. Other teams like Detroit and Ottawa are fully powering out of their rebuild stage and will be looking to add at the deadline and this offseason. Philadelphia’s front office has already talked about being major players this offseason. There really aren’t any teams in the league you can point to right now and say, definitively, that they will be actively “rebuilding” next year. (Besides, well, maybe one in Pittsburgh…)

While there are plenty of contending teams right now who will look to add before the deadline, there will also be an entire contigent of teams with deep prospect pools and less incentive to hold on to draft picks who will be looking to add in the offseason. Some of those teams might be better trade partners for the Pens than the current contenders.

2. Free Agents Are About To Get More Expensive

The NHL salary cap currently sits at $88 million. The league already announced that this number will increase to $95.5 million next year, $104 million the year after, and $113.5 million three years from now. This will have two effects: one, every team will have a lot more cap space in the coming years, and two, the cost of free agents will increase accordingly.

This past offseason, Jake DeBrusk, a 19-goal, 40 point winger, signed with Vancouver for 7 years x $5.5 million. Elias Lindholm signed with Boston for 7 x $7.75 mil. Tyler Toffoli signed with San Jose for 4 x $6 mil. Jonathan Marchessault signed for 5 x $5.5 even though he was already 33. Chandler Stephenson signed for 7 x 6.25 mil. The cream of the free agent crop, Jake Guentzel, signed for 7 years x $9 mil.

Next season, a much stronger group of forwards are set to hit free agency: Mitch Marner, Miko Rantanen, Brad Marchand, Brock Boeser, Nikolai Ehlers, and veterans like John Tavares, Claude Giroux, and Brock Nelson are all UFAs, just to name a few. These guys are going to crush the contracts that the UFAs from last year signed.

Now, imagine you’re Chicago, Anaheim, San Jose, Buffalo, Detroit, Columbus, Utah, Ottawa, or Montreal. You’re sitting on a pile of picks & prospects, and you’re ready to improve your team ASAP. Your options are to get into a bidding war over Brock Boeser and end up paying him, say, $10 million a year for 7 years, or, you could leverage some of those assets to acquire Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, or Michael Bunting, who are all productive top-6 wingers making $4-5 million for 1-3 more seasons. All the sudden, those Pens contracts look a lot more attractive, don’t they?

The top UFA defensemen on the market next season are Jakob Chychrun, Vladislav Gavrikov, Ivan Provorov, Marcus Pettersson, and Aaron Ekblad. Provorov makes $6.75 million a year now. In the new market, he’s probably looking at what, $7.5-8.5 mil a year for 7 more seasons, until he’s 35? If you’re an all-in contender looking for a D upgrade, would you rather sign Provorov for 7 years, or trade for Erik Karlsson’s 2 years x $10 mil remaining?

A dramatic shift in player valuation this Summer could make the Pens’ current assets suddenly much more valuable, especially when every team in the league is going to have cap space and incentive to improve.

3. The Pens Can Free Up Spots To Lure Other Short-Term Free Agents

This is getting two steps ahead, but if the Penguins do sell off a bunch of their veteran players between now and July 1st, they’ll have a boatload of cap space (they’ll have this no matter what), no pressing RFAs to lock up long term, and a bunch of holes on their depth chart, even if they call up some of the young players.

If the Pens do decide to have another soft-rebuild year (which I think they should,) they would have a lot of prime roster spots open to lure free agents on a one-year deal, or to sign young players who don’t get qualifying offers, or to give playing time to any players on bad contracts they take back for draft picks.

If, for example, Andrew Mangiapane doesn’t get a long term free agent deal to his liking, the Pens could offer him 1 year x $6.5 million, play him in the top 6 all season, and flip him at the deadline with retention. If an intriguing younger player in the Tomasino mold doesn’t get a qualifying offer, the Penguins could lure them with the prospect of playing time, like the Capitals did when they shrewdly signed Dylan Strome for just 1 year x $3.5 mil in 2022 (then extended him.) If the Oilers want to give the Pens a 2nd round pick to take Evander Kane’s remaining 1 year x $5 mil off their hands, and he’s healthy, the Pens could take on a player like that, give them plum ice time, and possibly re-flip them at the deadline for another asset.

In each of the above cases, the Pens would be able to add assets by selling their current veterans in a strong market, still fill out their roster without committing too much money long-term, and allow their young players to work their way into the depth chart without “blocking” them or forcing them into roles that are too high up before they’re ready.

Either way, this offseason’s unprecedented combination of having SO many teams trying to improve ASAP and the cap going way up should make for a potentially very strong trade market for some of the Pens’ veterans who were previously too hard to move in a flat-cap environment. If the Pens do get a huge offer for Rakell this deadline, they should obviously take it. But if the Pens don’t pull off a “fire sale” at the deadline this year — and I don’t really expect them to — I still wouldn’t rush out and buy any brand new Rust or Rakell or Karlsson jerseys quite yet. If anyone was going to do that.